12 comments
117 forecasters
What percent of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050?
Current estimate
20.8%
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 11, 2018
Closes:Dec 31, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2018
Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?
40% chance
25
What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?
52.5%
(42.4 - 62.2)
52.5%
(42.4 - 62.2)
29 forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?
8.89B people
(8.37B - 9.48B)
8.89B people
(8.37B - 9.48B)
39 forecasters