Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Cavendish Bananas Collapse by 2035

Question

Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas.

However, it appears another Fusarium rears its spores. Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations.

There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.

Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?

Resolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.