11 comments
141 forecasters
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
1.8%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Mar 26, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 28, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch