Question

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

81 comments81

Total Forecasters147

Community Prediction

26.5%

(12% - 60%)

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50%

community: 26.5%

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Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Mar 27, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 28, 2023

Politics

Trump promised to be a dictator on day one. We’re now past day 200

Guardian•Aug 10, 2025

Authoritarian rulers aren’t new – here’s what Herodotus, an early Greek historian, wrote about them

The Conversation•Aug 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?

48%

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

78.2

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Mar 27, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 28, 2023

Politics

Trump promised to be a dictator on day one. We’re now past day 200

Guardian•Aug 10, 2025

Authoritarian rulers aren’t new – here’s what Herodotus, an early Greek historian, wrote about them

The Conversation•Aug 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?

48%

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

78.2