46
280 forecasters

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

1.5%chance
Top Key Factors
The French constitution prevents the dissolution of the National Assembly and fresh elections before July 8, 2025, due to the rule against holding two legislative elections within 12 months.
Decreases Likelihood
Macron is under pressure to appoint a new prime minister who can pass a 2025 budget through a deeply divided parliament, following the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Increases Likelihood
Emmanuel Macron has ruled out resigning and stated he will stay in power until the end of his term in 2027, despite the political turmoil following the government's collapse due to a no-confidence vote.
Decreases Likelihood
The successful parliamentary no-confidence vote, a first in more than six decades, has deepened the political crisis and sparked calls for Macron to step down and call early elections.
Increases Likelihood
Macron's presidency has hit rock bottom with the National Rally leading his centrist alliance by almost 10 points in polls.
Increases Likelihood