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46 comments
266 forecasters

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

5%chance
Top Key Factors
The French constitution prevents the dissolution of the National Assembly and fresh elections before July 8, 2025, due to the rule against holding two legislative elections within 12 months.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
Macron is under pressure to appoint a new prime minister who can pass a 2025 budget through a deeply divided parliament, following the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
6 votes
Emmanuel Macron has ruled out resigning and stated he will stay in power until the end of his term in 2027, despite the political turmoil following the government's collapse due to a no-confidence vote.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
The successful parliamentary no-confidence vote, a first in more than six decades, has deepened the political crisis and sparked calls for Macron to step down and call early elections.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Macron's presidency has hit rock bottom with the National Rally leading his centrist alliance by almost 10 points in polls.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:Mar 28, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 29, 2023
Politics
Guardian logo
France has survived revolutions and wars: its crisis now is deep, but not terminal | David A Bell
Guardian•Oct 25, 2025
Breitbart logo
96 Per Cent of French Public Dissatisfied with State of Their Country
Breitbart•Oct 24, 2025
Jacobin logo
Emmanuel Macron Isn’t Really Halting Retirement Reform
Jacobin•Oct 20, 2025
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