130 forecasters

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

55%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Nov 19, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 21, 2018

Natural Sciences

NASA Discovery Is the ‘Closest We Have Ever Come to Discovering Life on Mars’

PJ Media•Sep 14, 2025

Scientists detected a potential biosignature on Mars – an astrobiologist explains what these traces of life are, and how researchers figure out their source

The Conversation•Sep 13, 2025

Extraterrestrial life needs the right atmosphere. This planet 40 light-years away might fit the bill, scientists say.

NBC•Sep 11, 2025

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