223 forecasters

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

90%chance

90%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 17, 2023

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolved:

May 30, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 19, 2023

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Donald Trump could sue several critics out of existence

Canary•Sep 17, 2025

Trump says his Georgia election interference case ‘should now be dead for good’ after Fani Willis loses appeal

Independent•Sep 17, 2025

Georgia Supreme Court declines to hear Fani Willis’ appeal of her removal from Trump election case

PBS NewsHour•Sep 16, 2025

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