MetaculusM

Question

Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

8

Total Forecasters94

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

88.3

Community Peer Score

16.5

median 0.1%mean 0.7%

Authors:

michal_dubrawski Dataprasad

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Azovstal iron and steel works

Institute for the Study of War

Comments

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Authors:

michal_dubrawski Dataprasad

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Azovstal iron and steel works

Institute for the Study of War