2 comments
52 forecasters
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
0.3%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 19, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 21, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28% chance
55
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
1% chance
62
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
75% chance
176