Question

Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters152

Community Prediction

54%

(47% - 62%)

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50%

community: 54%

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 11, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 13, 2018

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Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?

70%

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

20%

Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?

55%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 11, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 13, 2018

Novo Nordisk Advances Promising Weight Loss Drug Amycretin to Final Testing Stage After Strong Trial Results

•Jun 22, 2025

Scientists confirm breakthrough in search for ways to extend human life

Independent•Jun 19, 2025

Biotech Stocks Facing FDA Decision In June 2025

•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?

70%

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

20%

Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?

55%