Question

When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters143

Community Prediction

2225

(2103 - >2500)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2500
community	2103	2225	>2500	26.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2103	—
median	2225	—
upper 75%	>2500	—
Upper bound
>2500	26.4%	—

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 14, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2250

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2500

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 14, 2018

When will a living human first reach a distance of one light year from Earth?

2410

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00239

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.2%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 14, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2250

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2500

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 14, 2018

When will a living human first reach a distance of one light year from Earth?

2410

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00239

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.2%