38 comments
242 forecasters
Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 16, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Jan 21, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 17, 2018
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Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?
74% chance
83
When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?
Oct 2043
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When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?
25 Jan 2030
(03 Mar 2027 - Mar 2034)
25 Jan 2030
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