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38 comments
242 forecasters

Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:Dec 16, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Jan 21, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 17, 2018
Natural Sciences
Technology
Health & Pandemics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?

74% chance
83

When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?

Oct 2043
(Feb 2037 - Jul 2048)
Oct 2043
(Feb 2037 - Jul 2048)
11 forecasters

When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?

25 Jan 2030
(03 Mar 2027 - Mar 2034)
25 Jan 2030
(03 Mar 2027 - Mar 2034)
24 forecasters
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