10 comments
37 forecasters
Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?
4.5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 28, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 30, 2023
How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?
6 members
(4 - 8)
6 members
(4 - 8)
90 forecasters
Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?
90% chance
56
Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?
0.2% chance
59