Question

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction

0.0024 c

(9.15×10⁻⁴ c - 0.0104 c)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1 c
community	9.152×10⁻⁴ c	0.002399 c	0.01043 c	1.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	9.152×10⁻⁴ c	—
median	0.002399 c	—
upper 75%	0.01043 c	—
Upper bound
>1 c	1.5%	—

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 22, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 23, 2018

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

13%

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 22, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 23, 2018

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

13%

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193