20 comments
76 forecasters
What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?
Current estimate
0.00268 c
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 23, 2018
Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?
13% chance
17
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?
0.12 c
(0.0156 - 0.351)
0.12 c
(0.0156 - 0.351)
9 forecasters
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?
193 c
(1.33 - 125k)
193 c
(1.33 - 125k)
4 forecasters