51 comments
226 forecasters
Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 3, 2023
Closes:Jun 30, 2023
Resolved:Jul 5, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2023
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
26 Jun 2027
(02 Oct 2026 - 06 Feb 2029)
26 Jun 2027
(02 Oct 2026 - 06 Feb 2029)
40 forecasters
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
125 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
396