Question

Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters196

Community Prediction

(1% - 5%)

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50%

community: 3%

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 22, 2018

Technology

Space

In 2019, We Discovered a Fungus That Metabolizes Gold — Some Already Want to Use These Organisms as the Key to Mining in Space

•Jun 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will space mining be profitable?

Jul 2068

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

1.4%

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Apr 2064

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 22, 2018

Technology

Space

In 2019, We Discovered a Fungus That Metabolizes Gold — Some Already Want to Use These Organisms as the Key to Mining in Space

•Jun 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will space mining be profitable?

Jul 2068

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

1.4%

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Apr 2064