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6
44
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44 forecasters
Regulation of AI
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Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?
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Yes
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10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
3 comments
28 forecasters
How larger will AI from non-authoritarian states be in 2030?
Current estimate
3.6×10²⁵ FLOP
4 comments
62 forecasters
Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
chance
3 comments
50 forecasters
AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?
11%
chance
2 comments
58 forecasters
Chinese Model Chinese Chips
69%
chance
3 comments
39 forecasters
Frontier [Country] AI Model by 2035
India
35%
Israel
29%
Russia
10%
5 comments
78 forecasters
What percentage of AI computational performance in the US on Jan 1, 2028?
Current estimate
62.8%
2 comments
69 forecasters
Large Domestic Order Chinese AI Chips
95%
chance