44 forecasters

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

89%chance

89%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 89% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolved:

Sep 6, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

May 1, 2023

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Artificial Intelligence

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