Question

Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

Resolved:No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction

10%

(9% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

11.3

Community Baseline Score

61.6

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 24, 2018

Closes:

Mar 1, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 20, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2018

Economy & Business

Politics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Fed governor Cook to seek court order blocking her firing by Trump

Associated Press•Aug 29, 2025

Where is Jay Powell?

CNN•Aug 28, 2025

Trump's Fed firing: What to know and why it matters

CNBC•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?

28%

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

11%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

89%