53 forecasters

Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?

80%chance

80%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 80% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

christian tburr

Opened:

May 7, 2023

Closes:

May 12, 2023

Resolved:

May 9, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

May 8, 2023

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Read the Ruling on the Judgment Against Trump in the E. Jean Carroll Case

New York Times•Sep 9, 2025

US court upholds sexual assault defamation order against Trump

Al Jazeera•Sep 8, 2025

Federal appeals court upholds $83.3M E. Jean Carroll judgment against Trump

FOX News•Sep 8, 2025

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