Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?

Question

[warning: links may contain spoilers]

George R. R. Martin (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show are extraordinarily popular.

Many of GRRM's fans have commented (with varying degrees of frustration) that the latest ASOIAF books are taking him a long time to write.

For instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, keeps getting pushed back (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', finishing entirely this coming year.

Also: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM does not respond well.

This question asks the following:

Will George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?


Details:

  • I have not specified the name of the 'final book' as "A Dream of Spring" in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.

  • For a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to The Salmon of Doubt or Unfinished Tales).

    • The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. "The End" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.)

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.