Question
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction
05 May 2024
(30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)
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CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 30 Nov 2023 | — |
| median | 05 May 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 13 Jan 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 Dec 2026 | 4.3% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 14, 2023
Closed:Jun 10, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:May 15, 2023
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?
06 Jun 2029
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%
Authors:
Opened:May 14, 2023
Closed:Jun 10, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:May 15, 2023
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?
06 Jun 2029
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%