173 forecasters

Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?

11%chance

11%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 11% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 31, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2021

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2019

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Belarus, Russia conduct joint military drills amid NATO tensions

Al Jazeera•Sep 16, 2025

Display of firepower in Russia-Belarus war games stirs unease across Europe

Guardian•Sep 15, 2025

Russia and Belarus launch big military exercise that fueled Western concerns

NBC•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch