8 comments
59 forecasters
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
0.5%chance
2.3 pp this week
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
6 labs
(4.64 - 8.06)
6 labs
(4.64 - 8.06)
67 forecasters
Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?
7% chance
37
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.1% chance
133