conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? | Date First Human Lands on Mars |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
The question "In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?" resolves.
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Mar 2032 | — |
| median | Mar 2037 | — |
| upper 75% | Nov 2046 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 5.1% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closed:Dec 31, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closed:Dec 31, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100