Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
7
comments
13
forecasters
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
community
03 Jul 2024
result
28 May 2024 12:00
Share
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
dschwarz
will_aldred
Opened:
May 30, 2023
Closes:
Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:
May 28, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:
Jun 1, 2023
AI in China
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
News Match
Alibaba-backed Moonshot releases its second AI update in four months as China’s AI race heats up
CNBC
•
Nov 6, 2025
AI Wunderkind DeepSeek’s Founder Debuts On China’s 100 Richest List
Forbes
•
Nov 6, 2025
Open AI's $1.4 Trillion Gamble to Build Out Its Computing Resources
PJ Media
•
Nov 5, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
25 Feb 2025
(29 May 2024 - 13 Mar 2026)
25 Feb 2025
(29 May 2024 - 13 Mar 2026)
8
forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
99.9%
chance
52
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
6.01 labs
(4.59 - 8.15)
6.01 labs
(4.59 - 8.15)
32
forecasters
Show More Questions