M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Learn more, and share your feedback and questions here

Group

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CandidatesMe
Russia
24%
Sudan
yes
Niger
65%
Democratic Republic of Congo
60%
Haiti
59%
Afghanistan
51%
Ethiopia
50%
Libya
annulled
Venezuela
40.6%
Iraq
40%
Burkina Faso
39%
Lebanon
34.2%
Nigeria
23%
Angola
21.2%
Pakistan
16.6%
Iran
15%
Sri Lanka
15%
Zimbabwe
15%
Egypt
13%
Colombia
10%
Sierra Leone
10%
Kenya
10%
El Salvador
9%
South Africa
9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6.5%
Cuba
5%
Turkey
5%
Ecuador
5%
North Korea
4%
United States
2.7%
Kazakhstan
2.6%
Thailand
2%
Argentina
2%
Phillipines
2%
Israel
2%
India
2%
China
2%
Mexico
2%
Vietnam
1%
Canada
1%
Latvia
1%
Romania
1%
Jamaica
1%
Japan
1%
Greece
1%
United Kingdom
1%
Hungary
1%
France
1%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Brazil
1%
Serbia
1%
Indonesia
1%
Australia
1%
Germany
1%
Morocco
1%


Comments

? comments