Question

When will the USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter aircraft reach initial operating capability?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters5

Community Prediction

Mar 2031

(30 Mar 2028 - Apr 2035)

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CDF

	<01 Jan 2023	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Dec 2044
community	3.7%	30 Mar 2028	Mar 2031	Apr 2035	3.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<01 Jan 2023	3.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	30 Mar 2028	—
median	Mar 2031	—
upper 75%	Apr 2035	—
Upper bound
>Dec 2044	3.5%	—

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Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Jun 17, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2023

Technology

F-35 engine upgrade hits delay, casting doubt on timeline

Defense One•Jun 19, 2025

Spat over Europe’s next-gen fighter program spills over at Paris Air Show

Defense One•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Boeing release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030?

0.1%

When will the United States announce that the Lockheed U-2 has been retired from service?

Sep 2035

Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?

20%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Jun 17, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2045

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 19, 2023

Technology

F-35 engine upgrade hits delay, casting doubt on timeline

Defense One•Jun 19, 2025

Spat over Europe’s next-gen fighter program spills over at Paris Air Show

Defense One•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Boeing release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030?

0.1%

When will the United States announce that the Lockheed U-2 has been retired from service?

Sep 2035

Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?

20%