4 comments
31 forecasters
Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?
43%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 43% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 8, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Nov 6, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 10, 2023
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When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
15 forecasters
Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?
20% chance
58
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
126 forecasters