Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
3
comments
77
forecasters
Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?
1%
chance
1%
chance
Resolved
No
Resolved
No
The community gave this a
1%
chance, and it resolved
No
.
Share
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Background Info
Histogram
Follow
embed
Authors:
dschwarz
will_aldred
Opened:
Jun 8, 2023
Closes:
Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:
Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:
Jun 9, 2023
Business of AI
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2023 Leaderboard
News Match
OpenAI’s Open-Weight Models Are Coming to the US Military
Wired
•
Nov 13, 2025
OpenAI says the brand-new GPT-5.1 is ‘warmer’ and has more ‘personality’ options
Verge
•
Nov 13, 2025
The New Brutality of OpenAI
Atlantic
•
Nov 11, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
27 May 2027
(27 Oct 2026 - 16 Nov 2027)
27 May 2027
(27 Oct 2026 - 16 Nov 2027)
17
forecasters
Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?
1%
chance
37
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
50%
chance
63
Show More Questions