29 comments
43 forecasters
Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?
203010%
20262%
2023result: No
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Feb 15, 2031
Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?
0.5% chance
105
Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?
2% chance
28
Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?
28% chance
2