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218 forecasters

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218 forecasters

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

1%chance

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15 comments41 forecasters

Leading Lab No Safety

2026result: Yes

5 comments29 forecasters

OpenAI Triggers 'Assist Clause'

5 comments37 forecasters

AI alignment experts consider alignment techniques enough?

Current estimate

6 comments97 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?

3 comments51 forecasters

AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?

1 comment54 forecasters

Dates that OpenAI reports an AI reached these Self-improvement risk levels?

5 comments90 forecasters

Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?

3 comments31 forecasters

Rob Long Says AI Conscious By 2030?