41 comments
214 forecasters
Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?
1%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 5, 2023
Closes:Jun 30, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jul 15, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 6, 2023
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Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
35 forecasters
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?
27 forecasters
What percentage of AI alignment experts surveyed in 2029 will consider alignment techniques at the time to be sufficient?
40.6%
(21.9 - 54.8)
40.6%
(21.9 - 54.8)
35 forecasters