105 comments

242 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

0.2%chance

Authors:

tryingToPredictFuture

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 3, 2023

Nuclear Technology & Risks

🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard

Zelensky says Ukraine will work on ceasefire plan ‘in next 10 days’ and urges Trump to ramp up pressure on Putin

Independent•Oct 28, 2025

Russia Testing Nuclear Weapons Due to Security Concerns—Kremlin

Newsweek•Oct 27, 2025

Ukraine war briefing: Russia claims test of nuclear-powered missile condemned as ‘flying Chornobyl’

Guardian•Oct 27, 2025

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