Question

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

105 comments105

Total Forecasters207

Community Prediction

0.5%

(0.1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 0.5%

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Authors:

tryingToPredictFuture

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 3, 2023

Technology

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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New Pentagon policy could divert weapons built for Ukraine back into US stockpiles

CNN•Aug 8, 2025

US Flexes Nuclear Forces As Trump Rattles Saber at Putin

Newsweek•Aug 6, 2025

Arms race fears as Putin says Russia is no longer bound by missile treaty

Independent•Aug 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

0.1%

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

3.5%