Question

Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?

Resolved:No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

1.9

Authors:

Anastasia

Opened:

Jul 21, 2023

Closes:

Jul 28, 2023

Resolves:

Jul 29, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 21, 2023

🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

38%

Authors:

Anastasia

Opened:

Jul 21, 2023

Closes:

Jul 28, 2023

Resolves:

Jul 29, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 21, 2023

🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

38%