13 comments
96 forecasters
Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?
1%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Aug 2, 2023
Closes:Jul 21, 2028
Scheduled resolution:Jul 22, 2028
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 4, 2023
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
70% chance
123
Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?
0.1% chance
65
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?
5% chance
42