23 forecasters

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

Current estimate

Oct 2056

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 27, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2095

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2096

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 29, 2023

Environment & Climate

More than half of Antarctica's ice shelves could collapse by 2300 – sparking 32 FEET of irreversible global sea level rise, scientists warn

Daily Mail•Oct 31, 2025

The Southern Ocean is building up a colossal 'burp' that could reignite global warming, scientists warn

Daily Mail•Oct 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch