19 comments
111 forecasters
Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?
52%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 52% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 29, 2023
Closes:Aug 3, 2023
Resolved:Aug 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 29, 2023
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
0.6% chance
92
When will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved?
Sep 2052
(Oct 2035 - >2080)
Sep 2052
(Oct 2035 - >2080)
67 forecasters
What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?
16 forecasters