103 comments
492 forecasters
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 1, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 8, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 1, 2023
When will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved?
Sep 2052
(Oct 2035 - >2080)
Sep 2052
(Oct 2035 - >2080)
67 forecasters
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
0.6% chance
92
What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?
16 forecasters