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25 comments
72 forecasters

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

89%chance
89%chance
Annulled
Annulled

The community gave this a 89% chance, and it resolved Annulled.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
exoplanet_emma
Opened:Oct 10, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2028
Resolved:Feb 17, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 13, 2023
Space Technology & Climate
Environment & Climate
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Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

0.9% chance
127

When will a global sensing system be operational that enables real-time, 3D atmospheric tomography at a resolution sufficient to model small-scale convective processes?

2034
(2031 - 2040)
2034
(2031 - 2040)
6 forecasters

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50% chance
13
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