25 comments
72 forecasters
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
89%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 89% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 10, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2028
Resolved:Feb 17, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 13, 2023
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
0.9% chance
127
When will a global sensing system be operational that enables real-time, 3D atmospheric tomography at a resolution sufficient to model small-scale convective processes?
2034
(2031 - 2040)
2034
(2031 - 2040)
6 forecasters
Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?
50% chance
13