Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
6
11
forecasters
5
6 comments
11 forecasters
Transparent Replications
2 more...
How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?
Follow
share
embed
community
5
result
9
Resolved
9
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (6)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
7 comments
16 forecasters
Replication of Bastian et al. (2012)
Study 2
58.3%
Study 1
53%
8 comments
21 forecasters
Effect of glasses on spending in Kenya, India
≥3%
50%
≥5%
40%
5 comments
5 forecasters
Number of CRTs on far-UVC reducing airborne transmission by 2027?
Current estimate
1.12 CRT
0 comments
7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published
30 comments
44 forecasters
Will quantum consciousness be the consensus before 2075?
5%
chance
5 comments
37 forecasters
AI alignment experts consider alignment techniques enough?
Current estimate
19.8%
22 comments
119 forecasters
Will C. elegans be uploaded before 2030?
20%
chance
26 comments
739 forecasters
Top ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026?
Current estimate
92.8