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25
121
forecasters
5
25 comments
121 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
2 more...
Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?
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Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?
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Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
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07 Sep 2026
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GPT-6 release date?
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14 Nov 2026
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5Y after AGI, Windfall Clause activated?
1%
chance
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Years Between GWP Growth >25% and AGI
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5.05 years
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Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence
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36.4 months
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Time between weak AGI and oracle ASI
Current estimate
30.6 months
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Date of Artificial General Intelligence
Current estimate
Jan 2033