121 forecasters

Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

0.3%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Oct 1, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 3, 2023

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI GPT vs. Google Gemini: the High-Stakes Battle Shaping the Future of A.I.

Observer (NY)•Sep 8, 2025

AI Hype Is Crashing Into Reality. That's Good for the Tech's Future.

Business Insider•Sep 4, 2025

Cohere Co-Founder Nick Frosst Criticizes Sam Altman’s AGI Predictions as Misleading

Observer (NY)•Sep 4, 2025

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