95 forecasters

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

16%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Sep 9, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 10, 2023

The Taiwan Tinderbox

China issues warning to Britain as UK and US send warships through Taiwan Strait

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Taiwan’s new civil defense handbook aims to boost public readiness as China tensions persist

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

Tourniquets, gray-zone tactics, and secrecy: I attended an 8-hour course that teaches Taiwanese citizens what to do if China invades

Business Insider•Sep 15, 2025

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