Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

56 forecasters

7

56 forecasters

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

90%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

13 comments118 forecasters

UK Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before Sept 2026?

9 comments79 forecasters

Total Global Fatalities from Terrorism

6 comments37 forecasters

IS resurgence before 2031?

4 comments38 forecasters

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

0 comments34 forecasters

Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State

2 comments64 forecasters

Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030

63 comments349 forecasters

Major Nuclear Accident before 2030

0 comments14 forecasters

Number of HEMP Attacks by 2030

Current estimate