40 forecasters

What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?

community

4.45

result

6.6

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Aug 26, 2023

Closes:

Sep 19, 2023

Resolved:

Sep 20, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 8, 2023

🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Elections

2023 Leaderboard

Georgia Democrat gains traction in special election for state Senate seat in deeply GOP district

Associated Press•Sep 13, 2025

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Minnesota House special election

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

Democrats are doing better than ever in Trump-era special elections

CNN•Sep 10, 2025

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Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

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66.1%

Rep Senate / Rep House

18.4%

Dem Senate / Dem House

14.5%

1 other

23 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?