Question
What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?
Resolved:6.6Total Forecasters40
Community Prediction
4.45
(0.672 - 7.16)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-25 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.6723 | — |
| median | 4.451 | — |
| upper 75% | 7.16 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >25 | 0.4% | — |
What was the final result?6.6
Community Peer Score
6.6
Authors:
Opened:Aug 26, 2023
Closes:Sep 19, 2023
Resolves:Sep 20, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 8, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Aug 26, 2023
Closes:Sep 19, 2023
Resolves:Sep 20, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 8, 2023
