74 forecasters

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25.6%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Aug 29, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 30, 2023

Watch: China's New Aircraft Carrier Demonstrates Aircraft Launch, Recovery

Red State•Sep 24, 2025

China Achieves Major Aircraft Carrier Breakthrough

Newsweek•Sep 22, 2025

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